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THE HAVOCSTORIAN
BIDS - What works and what doesn't...


Each issue I am attempting to compile as much data as there is in submitted game logs in the IAAPA database of games. In hopes of improving our collective play through strategy. One could say nothing is as important to the outcome of the game as the first German Turn. You throw the dice and lose your whole Luftwaffe or lose not a single unit and collect forty-two IPC's for Germany. Except maybe the bid it is the first action of the game, and the development of a limited amount of strategy for both sides right from the start. Due to the applications of new dead zones and kills zones. So I am going to outline the criteria that I use when assigning a game to a category within the bids database.

     Firstly I ignore IPC's bid. Then I look for any aircraft or Navy that might be bid and apply it to the affected region. For example if the bid is twenty and it is comprised of four infantry Eastern Europe and one fighter Manchuria, it would then fall in to the bids with Japanese's air force category. Once I have ascertained that the bid was all land forces, without naval or air forces. I then divide the game board in to three areas, Afrika, German held Europe, and Japanese owned Asia. If units are bid in any two areas, the compiled data is placed in the combined Germany and Japan land bid category, even if Japan gets no units. It may not be the best system in the sense that it lumps an all-German bid of Eur/afrika into this category, but I feel the system works. As the spread bids have less strategic impact on the game than a bid of seven infantry Ukraine would have. It is my hope that over time these bids will settle down and become more accurate, as more data is included in the database.

Without further ado, here are the new tables!

So what has changed in the tables from last month?

BID EFFECTIVENESS
Overall Bids / #of Games 1119
BID Axis
Wins
Axis
Losses
Percent Wins
< 16 68 137 33.17 %
17 53 103 33.97 %
18 118 166 41.55 %
19 89 108 45.18 %
20 75 102 42.37 %
21 50 33 60.24 %
22 > 10 7 58.82 %
Total 463 656 41.38 %

The Combined Germany, Japan Navy Bid
BID Axis
Wins
Axis
Losses
Percent Wins
< 16 0 1 0.00 %
17 0 1 0.00 %
18 1 0 100 %
19 2 1 66.67 %
20 0 0 na
21 0 0 na
22 > 0 0 na
Total 3 3 50.00 %

The All European Germany Bid
BID Axis
Wins
Axis
Losses
Percent Wins
< 16 8 24 25.00 %
17 8 6 57.14 %
18 36 58 38.30 %
19 21 22 48.84 %
20 9 11 45.00 %
21 16 6 72.73 %
22 > 2 1 66.67 %
Total 100 128 43.86 %

Bids with German Navy
BID Axis
Wins
Axis
Losses
Percent Wins
< 16 12 16 42.86 %
17 11 13 45.83 %
18 5 9 35.71 %
19 5 8 38.46 %
20 11 17 39.29 %
21 0 3 0.00 %
22 > 1 1 50.00 %
Total 45 67 40.18 %

The Bids with German Airforce
BID Axis
Wins
Axis
Losses
Percent Wins
< 16 2 2 50.00 %
17 0 0 na
18 3 5 37.50 %
19 1 1 50.00 %
20 2 2 50.00 %
21 0 0 na
22 > 0 1 0.00 %
Total 8 11 42.11 %

The All Germany Africa Bid
BID Axis
Wins
Axis
Losses
Percent Wins
< 16 11 8 57.89 %
17 2 1 66.67 %
18 0 0 na
19 1 1 50.00 %
20 0 0 na
21 0 0 na
22 > 0 0 na
Total 14 10 58.33 %

The Combined Germany, Japan
All Land Bid
BID Axis
Wins
Axis
Losses
Percent Wins
< 16 27 59 31.40 %
17 27 70 27.84 %
18 65 85 43.33 %
19 52 68 43.33 %
20 46 61 42.99 %
21 30 22 57.69 %
22 > 6 4 60.00 %
Total 253 369 40.68 %

The All Mainland Japan Bid

BID Axis
Wins
Axis
Losses
Percent Wins
< 16 5 18 21.74 %
17 2 5 28.57 %
18 5 4 55.56 %
19 4 2 66.67 %
20 1 5 16.67 %
21 4 2 66.67 %
22 > 0 0 na
Total 21 36 36.84 %

The Bids with Japanese Navy
BID Axis
Wins
Axis
Losses
Percent Wins
< 16 3 9 25.00 %
17 3 7 30..00 %
18 2 5 28.57 %
19 2 5 28.57 %
20 6 6 50.00 %
21 0 0 na
22 > 1 0 100 %
Total 17 32 34.69 %

The Bids with Japanese Airforce
BID Axis
Wins
Axis
Losses
Percent Wins
< 16 0 0 na
17 0 0 na
18 1 0 100 %
19 1 0 100 %
20 0 0 na
21 0 0 na
22 > 0 0 na
Total 2 0 100 %



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