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THE HAVOCSTORIAN
BIDS - What works and what doesn't...


     Solar has been hard at work looking at the successes of different types of bids. He added data from an additional 332 games bringing the total up to 761. The more data the tables contain, the more accurate they become. You will also find a graph of the info and some commentary below.

     Without further ado, here are the new tables!

BID EFFECTIVENESS
Overall Bids / #of Games 761
BID Axis
Wins		 Axis
Losses		 Percent Wins
< 16 55 102 35.03 %
17 43 66 39.45 %
18 93 118 44.08 %
19 60 72 45.45 %
20 43 60 41.75 %
21 24 14 63.16 %
22 > 7 4 63.64 %
Total 325 436 42.71 %
The Combined Germany, Japan Navy Bid
BID Axis
Wins		 Axis
Losses		 Percent Wins
< 16 0 1 0.00 %
17 0 1 0.00 %
18 1 0 100 %
19 2 1 66.67 %
20 0 0 na
21 0 0 na
22 > 0 0 na
Total 3 3 50.00 %

The All European Germany Bid
BID Axis
Wins		 Axis
Losses		 Percent Wins
< 16 8 20 28.57 %
17 8 3 72.73 %
18 34 47 41.98 %
19 17 16 51.52 %
20 9 7 56.25 %
21 8 4 66.67 %
22 > 1 0 100 %
Total 85 97 46.70 %
Bids with German Navy
BID Axis
Wins		 Axis
Losses		 Percent Wins
< 16 12 13 48.00 %
17 10 12 45.45 %
18 4 5 44.44 %
19 3 8 27.27 %
20 9 12 42.86 %
21 0 0 na
22 > 1 1 50.00 %
Total 39 51 43.33 %

The Bids with German Airforce
BID Axis
Wins		 Axis
Losses		 Percent Wins
< 16 2 2 50.00 %
17 0 0 na
18 1 5 16.67 %
19 1 0 100 %
20 1 2 33.33 %
21 0 0 na
22 > 0 1 0.00 %
Total 5 10 33.33 %

The All Germany Africa Bid
BID Axis
Wins		 Axis
Losses		 Percent Wins
< 16 9 8 52.94 %
17 2 0 100 %
18 0 0 na
19 0 1 0.00 %
20 0 0 na
21 0 0 na
22 > 0 1 0.00 %
Total 11 9 55.00 %

The Combined Germany, Japan
All Land Bid
BID Axis
Wins		 Axis
Losses		 Percent Wins
< 16 17 36 32.08 %
17 19 40 32.20 %
18 46 54 46.00 %
19 30 41 42.25 %
20 22 32 40.74 %
21 12 8 60.00 %
22 > 4 2 66.67 %
Total 147 213 40.83 %

The All Mainland Japan Bid
BID Axis
Wins		 Axis
Losses		 Percent Wins
< 16 4 13 23.53 %
17 2 4 33.33 %
18 4 4 50.00 %
19 4 2 66.67 %
20 1 4 20.00 %
21 4 2 66.67 %
22 > 0 0 na
Total 19 29 39.58 %

The Bids with Japanese Navy
BID Axis
Wins		 Axis
Losses		 Percent Wins
< 16 3 9 25.00 %
17 2 6 25.00 %
18 2 3 40.00 %
19 2 3 40.00 %
20 4 3 57.14 %
21 0 0 na
22 > 1 0 100 %
Total 14 24 36.84 %

The Bids with Japanese Airforce
BID Axis
Wins		 Axis
Losses		 Percent Wins
< 16 0 0 na
17 0 0 na
18 1 0 100 %
19 1 0 100 %
20 0 0 na
21 0 0 na
22 > 0 0 na
Total 2 0 100 %

So what has changed in the tables from last month?
     Two types of bids look better now than they did last month. "Power Europe Bid" now has a 46.7% success rate, which is about 5% better than last month's numbers. The "German Air Bid" now has a 33.33% success rate, where last month showed it at a 22.22%.
     Three types of bids moved markedly down: the "Combined Bid" dropped about 5 points to 40.83%, the "All Africa Bid" dropped over 6 points to 55%, and the "Mainland Japan Bid" dropped almost 14 points to 39.58%.
     The other bid types only drifted slightly if at all.

Here is a rough plot of the more popular bid types.

text

The lines cluster in the 19 - 20 bid range, but widely diverge in the 21 - 22 range. Hmmm . . .

As always: draw your own conclusions, use at your own risk.


Data by Solar, graph and prattle by Airship

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