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I'm a newcomer to IAAPA and wanted a better understanding of bids; how low is too low, how high is to high?
Looking at 100 game records taken at random here is a plot of bid value versus percent of games won by the Axis.
hmm . . . looks like bids below 16 are "too low" and even bids of 21 aren't "too high".
While looking at all these game records I noticed a more important factor: Rank.
Here is a graph which plots differences in rank verses the percent of games won by the high ranking player.
Wow! Rank is a MUCH stronger predictor of victory than bid value. Good old fashion skill and experience wins, regardless of the bid.
This leads me to . . .
Airship's Axioms:
Axioms #1: High Rank wins.What? You are not stunned by this? Well maybe you will be surprised by how much Ranks seems to matter.
If the players differ by three ranks then the higher rank wins 85% of the time.
If the players differ by four or more ranks then the higher rank wins virtually ALL the time!
As for Rating; if player #1 has a rating 100 points higher than player #2, then the odds are about %75 that player #1 will win.
It looks like the IAAPA system of Rank and Ratings is a good predictor of who will win and thus a good measure of skill.
Axioms #2: Everybody bids too low
Bids from 17 to 20 seem fair (another non-surprise). Bids of 21, however, are also basically fair.
In the games I looked at, a 21 bid led to an Allied victory a third of the time.
Axiom #3: The lower your rank, the higher you should bid.
For enlisted players a 21 bid led to an Allied victory more than %50 of the time - much more.
Bonus Data Section!
Here is a table and graph which contains the results of 3942 games!
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Of particular note: look at the 21 bids.
Axis won with a 21 bid only 54% of the time! Also look at the volume of bids: there were 235 games with a bid of 21 and only 29 games with a bid 22. Are people afraid to bid high? This data shows that there isn't any reason for an Allied player to fear a high bid.
This info and more can be found on the Airship Observer website (you can get there from "WWW Links" page on IAAPA).
Play hard, bid high.
